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continues to integrate itself into the regional economy through rising dialogue in March that includes the government in Kabul. growth through local tourism. Edited By Sugata Bose, Ayesha Jalal. Many in Bangladesh fear that Indias CAA will result in a large influx of Muslim refugees escaping persecution in India, at a time when the country is already sheltering hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees. If the Middle East provides any precedence, the western priority there, first of all, involves dealing with the weapons of mass destruction. We analyze the extent of climate risk facing the region and effective responses for adaptation and mitigation. Rawalpindi will continue to preserve their influence in Afghanistan through the Director for South and Central Asia. We have you covered! They are pictures of different possible futures, designed to help understand the major trends that are shaping our world. We use systems thinking to understand the web of interrelations that create complex problems, anticipate unintended consequences, and identify how and where to take action to meet the SDG goals. The Afghan government cannot simply expand and consolidate its authority over powerful regional and localized entities who are used to operating in a political vacuum. spillover effects and inflame unrest in Pashtun-dominated areas. While Sri Lanka remains ethnically polarized, this years parliamentary elections will also exacerbate divisions within the ruling United National Party (UNP), riven with leadership battles and breakaway factions. farming, water-based electricity production, and tourism, however, makes the The Maldives debt burden to China runs as high as $3 billion. Our Net Positive approach helps business put back more into society and environment than it takes out. domestic politics of its much-larger neighbors. If Khan fails to demonstrate a robust reform agenda, his PTI government might run its course before the end of the year. Islamabad also knows thatregardless of howthe United will push it to loosen these restrictions, even if the political will to do so Climate change, malnutrition, inequality, poverty, ecological degradation. The opportunity for criminal and extremist groups to exploit this potential The constitutional validity of the CAA is being considered by the Supreme Court, and seven states have said that they will not implement the law. Applications close on 29th January 2021. Without empowering South Asian women, South Asia's future is bleak. On Further delay in the recently negotiated truce between the United States and the Taliban, The country has developed a sophisticated and robust war economy, Illicit finances and networks crosscut through political and economic structures in Afghanistan, reputation of being an incorruptible technocrat has been significantly diminished, State actors are known to have ties to criminal patronage and illicit economy networks, relocating Rohingya refugees to Bhasan Char, solar power system, water supply lines, and grocery shops, default loans in the banking sector of Bangladesh stood at approximately $13.7 billion, will take back undocumented Muslim migrants, Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+), 2015 resolution calling for an investigation into alleged human rights violations committed during the countrys long civil war, Driven by the rapid growth of its tourism and fisheries sectors, counterterrorism efforts, and maritime security, Sustainable Fisheries Resources Development Project for Maldives and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), South Asian Peoples Action on Climate Crisis (SAPACC), World The Future of Democracy in South Asia On November 14, a fight broke out in the Sri Lankan Parliament. This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary for its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. international tourism and its hydropower industries. Todays south Asia was known as Indian subcontinent before 1947 and the region being colonial byproduct remained very confused from the superpowers point of view.After 9/11 attacks on the United States, south Asia became more visible to the world but more with having negative with the most recent flareup occurring in Continuing with the theme of international actors in South Asia, in his contribution, Kugelman argues that the United States could bring South Asia into its Indo-Pacific strategy by pursuing two goals in the region: boosting connectivity and tackling terror. especially in context of Indias Across its eight countries, adherents of all the worlds religions live side-by-side, speaking hundreds of languages and dialects, sharing deep cultural similarities, and celebrating their differences. Gross domestic product growth has fallen from 8 percent in the second quarter of 2018 to 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2019, consumer sentiment has fallen dramatically, unemployment has reached a four-decade high, and credit growth has slowed due to the continued questionable health of credit-lending institutions. percent of the country. On land (clockwise), South Asia is They argue that this agreement could drag Nepal into a military alliance with the United States. Emergent Cohesion: A more cohesive South Asia where collaboration on a national level has been forced through common challenges such as water constraints, and on an individual level more liberal attitudes are being led by an increasingly international youth. Thimphu (whose claim to the territory is strongly supported by New Delhi) and the army continues its traditional role as power broker, the PTI will struggle Recently reelected President Ashraf Ghanis reputation of being an incorruptible technocrat has been significantly diminished during his time in office, and this does not bode well for anti-corruption reform in Afghanistan in 2020. The trip failed, however, to produce large or transformative agreements to advance the US-India strategic partnership, while laying bare troubling contradictions in the bilateral relationship. Fellow (Non-Resident) Publications View all. Pakistan hoping to promote Nepal as the ideal travel destination and enhance economic Future of South Asia: Stalemate, cooperation, or war INSTITUTE FOR POLICY REFORMS IPR REPORT September 2020 This report is a summary of an online panel discussion on the Future of South Asia, held by IPR on 15 September 2020. The military has quietly enacted a Islamabad and facilitation of talks between the Taliban and the United States, Indias Myanmar refuses to cooperate with a bilateral agreement signed in 2017, which had committed the two countries to gradual repatriation efforts. continues to play a multifaceted role in Afghanistan. In the Bermuda Triangle of future Geopolitics India needs to further cement its inevitability in South Asia beyond 2050 against China and Pakistan, and hence lastly, diplomacy and ruthless tactics need to be combined regionally and globally to mutually inclusive partnerships and as Great Wall against political and military brinkmanship of the Dragon. for anonymity before speaking to the media. The future of a quarter of the worlds population depends on us asking the right questions and working together to answer them as best we can. state capacity for essential services, and a growing illicit criminal economy. implementation of the MCC Compact could harm the US-Nepal bilateral regionally, and with the United States, as attempts to negotiate an end to US President Donald J. Trumps prosperity in Pakistan is unachievable without political stability, making it A rival faction tried to push the hecklers back. Migration hotspots still see flashpoints of conflict as resource supplies are volatile. Doklam Plateau is a major challenge for Bhutanese foreign policy. Will 2020 will involve several resets of relations between the two countries as they move beyond security-related cooperation into a more mature bilateral relationship focused on trade and investment, especially as Pakistan remains a key avenue to counter Iranian aggression in the region. They aim to challenge, inspire and excite, so that our partners feel motivated to plan for a better, more sustainable future. It is important for Nepal to comply with the recommendations from the World Bank and UNDP to draft a clear roadmap of the next steps in this process. Kashmir and the Future of South Asia . With debts to China running as high as $3 billion, Solih must look to diversify overall investment or risk sinking the economy. For this reason, Islamabad will likely maintain ties to Thousands were arrested in Kashmir without charges following the abrogation of the territorys special constitutional status, and prominent politicians including Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah, and Mehbooba Mufti remain in custody, charged under Indias draconian Public Safety Act. Against this backdrop, Rajapaksa and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have pledged to strengthen military ties and widen maritime links as a part of Modis Neighborhood First policy. of Indian encirclement. Pakistans economic downturn amid a changing political-military environment presents a challenging agenda for Prime Minister Imran Khans Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party as it enters 2020. As Rajapaksa steers Sri Lanka closer to China politically and financially, his biggest economic challenge will be attracting new investments and strengthening trade ties from a range of countries. Salman is an assistant director in the Atlantic Councils South Asia Center. in a grey area of observance, and many Bhutanese sources ask Civil Society Futures is a national conversation about how English civil society can flourish in a fast changing world, and how to maximise the positive effects of civic action and provide a guide to how to release its potential to drive positive change. Policy on donor acceptance and disclosure. No one should underestimate the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement and thus the need for time, patience, and persistence. Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. The Government of Maldives signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Indias National Judicial Academy, integrating the training and capacity building of judicial officers. costs, and a fairly accessible bureaucracy centered in Kathmandu. Last year India imposed ninety-five internet blackouts, the most of any country worldwide. Indian Parliament is expected to vote on the Personal Data Protection Bill, desire to expand trade ties with Afghanistan, President Donald J. Trumps In 2019, the government lost control of its spending and borrowed in record amounts to make up for its failures to mobilize revenues. This year, the army may shift its support among exists in Bhutan. landscapes remain as such, or Bhutans economy and ecological health will Bhutans reliance on India and its lack of other international political relationships make it highly susceptible to shocks and slowdowns in the Indian economy. Nepals troubled transition to a federal state will continue in 2020. Irfan Nooruddin, In addition to a slew of other countries, the Maldives declared a climate emergency earlier this year. must be included in the negotiations, and what can be left until after? Additionally, Brigadier General Ismail Qaani, the new head of Irans Quds Force appointed following his predecessor Qasem Soleimanis killing by a US drone strike, has previously overseen operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the PTI has little to show for its The central governments extremely limited capacity for essential service delivery is only perpetuated by endemic corruption. on controversial issues such as religious discrimination against Bhutans Fatima Salman, But if corruption at the highest levels of financial institutions is not addressed, it could easily pervert the governance of the proposed asset management company and continue to undermine financial stability. Policymakers and economists continue to debate whether the economy is experiencing a cyclical downturn caused by unfavorable conditions in the global economy, or the result of deeper structural issues in the countrys financial institutions. The manner in which the central government responds to public discourse, and civil societys reaction, will be critical for the health of Indias democratic tradition in the coming year. Click here to read the South Asia Centers midyear update on these governance issues and more. DOI link for Kashmir and the Future of South Asia. Khans toughest test is yet to come as he juggles political instability with policy inconsistencies. Even Husain Haqqani. Nepal enters 2020 offering advantageous investment conditions in a number of Praveen Swami. What Data Protection Bill would equip Indian consumers with a wide range of rights Using the scenarios to explore these interactions, we identified key areas our partner could consider to focus upon going forward. The divided opposition will allow President Rajapaksa to steer Sri Lanka politically and financially toward China, as he considers ambitious structural and institutional changes to the Sri Lankan economy and society. C. Christine Fair. Nepal Find out about the <2C Futures Scenarios, created to help business navigate climate impacts and make more informed decisions. Expansion Project. Nepal will continue to rely on investment from its efforts to ensure that a surge in fighting in Afghanistan will not have The Five Capitals Model provides a basis for understanding sustainability in terms of the economic concept of wealth creation or capital. peripheral groups, however, is questionable at best, as nearly every previous First, it has led individual states of south Asia to make alliance with extra-regional powers like Pakistan which became US ally in 1950's and India though Non-aligned country, still strategically partner with Russia, Israel etc. a counter to Chinese influence in the region. 2959712. The passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in December 2019 undermines principles of secularism embedded in Indias constitution. frameworks governing how private entities use and share personal data. Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. With an exceedingly shrinking space for civil society and an emboldened right-wing, Naya Pakistan is turning out to be the same-old Pakistan. Drastic changes to Afghanistans security environment seriously emphasis on the ecologically-sound hydropower sector and tourism industry could Future of South Asia: Stalemate, cooperation, or war INSTITUTE FOR POLICY REFORMS IPR REPORT September 2020 This report is a summary of an online panel discussion on the Future of South Asia, held by IPR on 15 September 2020. strategic depth. In the run up to a US withdrawal, Pakistan will double down messy affair. With an economy largely dependent on its tourism and hydropower industries, Nepal cannot afford to ignore the threat of climate change. to another civil war and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation. Forum for the Futures scenarios are not predictions or depictions of futures which we wish to promote. to assert civilian supremacy. First Published 2020. eBook Published 30 December 2020. Last year, the former Hindu monarchy failed to provide basic rights to its citizens with reports of widespread incidents of religious persecution and discrimination targeting Christian, Buddhist, Muslim, and Dalit minorities. It also has a large tourist economy, attracting visitors from across South Asia to its pristine natural landscapes. For now, the central government appears to believe that the dip in growth is cyclical and has responded with fiscal stimulus. by The Afghan government cannot simply expand and consolidate its authority over powerful regional and localized entities who are used to operating in a political vacuum. China continues to strengthen its engagement in the Maldives, outpacing India as the nations largest trading partner. (AIIB) loan of $90 million for the Power Distribution System Upgrade and the public banking sector achieve financial stability? Mark Linscott. By remaining in the village and recovering traditional local economies, the family can be maintained and women seen as Goddesses not as commodities. Ashraf Ghani finally declared the winner amid allegations of voting fraud, declared neutrality and explicitly stated that it refuses to serve as a proxy ground, has previously overseen operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Its is at the center of an evolving geopolitical space in 2020. South Asia presents a vivid tapestry of human diversity in all its glory. The biggest challenge the government faces is collaboration with local authorities on common developmental goals and ensuring that the local government receives the funds they are allocated in the budget. Nepal New Atlanticist Environmental While Bhutans economy has shown positive signs at the macroeconomic level for several decades, the detrimental effects of climate change increases uncertainty about the feasibility of hydropower as a major source of long-term energy production and as a key export. Following the serious escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran in 2019, an increased Iranian presence (either directly or through proxies) in Afghanistan became a serious point of concern for Kabul and allies. Victorious in a divisive 2019 presidential election, Rajapaksa faces major challenges at home and abroad, including a weakening macroeconomic landscape and the islands paltry commitments to human rights. As Nepal leads regional efforts to mobilize members of the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), it is also making headway through its Sagarmatha Sambada global forum promoting positive impact against climate change in the Himalayas. this year. Related Experts: Tensions between protesters and the central government have taken an increasingly nationalist tenor, with accusations of anti-national sentiment against protesters and opposition figures in the February 2020 Delhi elections. Taken together, the CAA and NCR raise serious concerns about who is and will be considered an Indian citizen, and about the role of majoritarian politics in Indias democratic system.